BOSTON (CBS) – The late Ross Perot gained practically 20 million votes as a third-party candidate in 1992, simply shy of 19 % of the vote. And whereas no third-party candidate has ever gained the presidency, occasions for the reason that Perot insurgency show they will play the spoiler.
It occurred final time round and there’s ample motive to marvel if it’d occur once more.
Regardless of exit polls displaying Perot drew assist from equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, George H.W. Bush insisted he had value him a second time period. And it was an indication of issues to come back.
In 2000, Ralph Nader’s Inexperienced Celebration candidacy drew hundreds of Florida votes which may in any other case have gone to Al Gore, probably handing the election to George W. Bush.
And final time round, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Inexperienced Celebration nominee Jill Stein drew greater than sufficient votes in key swing states to account for Donald Trump’s profitable margins.
With Trump-hating Congressman Justin Amash leaving the GOP and mulling a run as a Libertarian, his dwelling state of Michigan, scene of a wafer-thin win by Trump three years in the past, would possibly see the anti-Trump vote break up as soon as once more.
Take into account the breakdown of voters who say we’d like a 3rd get together candidate, practically 4 in ten in a single nationwide ballot this yr. And the get together breakdown suggests extra Democrats (37%) than Republicans (31%) would possibly take into account ditching their nominee.
Might 2020 be deja vu yet again? There are a couple of causes to assume it may not be.
These ballot numbers on assist for a 3rd get together are down from a couple of years in the past.
The sheer depth of anti-Trump sentiment suggests potential third-party voters might imagine twice this time round. And the Democrats have an opportunity to appoint somebody with out the sky-high negatives that plagued Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Nonetheless, the populist frustration that boosted Perot in 1992 remains to be thriving. Keep tuned.